Friday, July 07, 2006

Sometimes, carrying a big stick is not enough.


The North Korean dictator has screamed "jump!" (in the form of lobbing missiles) and, to my amazement, many people are beginning to ask, "how high?"

Bill Richardson, Madeleine Albright, Wendy Sherman, etc. have been pushing for direct talks with Pyongyang. Do they really believe the U.S. can strike a deal with Kim Jong Il that will be worth more than the paper it is printed on? Perhaps another deal can be obtained... like the deal the U.S. (under the Clinton administration) entered into in the 1990s? We know how well that one worked out. Fortunately, not everyone is on the same page. From today's Wall Street Journal editorial:

Kim is at it again because his previous provocations have typically been rewarded. The most famous example is the 1994 Agreed Framework in which the Clinton Administration responded to Kim's nuclear threats by offering aid and the promise of nuclear energy plants. That deal collapsed in 2002 when Kim repudiated it, announced a secret nuclear program and kicked out U.N. inspectors.

Consider what happened the last time Kim launched a missile, sending the Taepodong-1 over Japan in 1998. The Clinton Administration went back to the negotiating table and came close to concluding a missile version of the 1994 nuclear agreement. As part of that deal--negotiated by then-State Department Counsellor Wendy Sherman--the U.S. would launch North Korean satellites in return for the North's pledge to stop developing long-range missiles. Given Pyongyang's abysmal record at keeping its promises, the more likely outcome would have been the theft of U.S. technology and the strengthening of the North's missile program.

Much to his credit, Sen. John McCain had this to say yesterday:

It would be the height of folly to reward this lawless rogue regime with diplomatic benefits, including the bilateral talks it seeks. In the 1990s we nurtured Kim Jong-il's expectation that threats of attack will garner benefits, when the United States agreed to provide fuel oil and construct two civilian nuclear reactors in return for a freeze on Pyongyang's nuclear weapons programs. Mr. Kim cheated on that agreement, and now the world faces a nuclear-armed North Korea. While the U.S. and our allies have presented incentives within the context of the six party talks, these can only go forward if North Korea gives up its nuclear program completely and verifiably. In the meantime, the world has seen the course Mr. Kim prefers, and we must respond accordingly.

Way to go Sen. McCain! You just made up my mind whose campaign Iwill be working on come the next eletion. That is, unless Condi Rice runs, because I have a non-sexual (ok... maybe a little bit sexual) crush on her.

Of course, despite the best efforts of our UN Ambassador, I doubt the Security Council will do much beyond passing a resolution with a few strongly-worded phrases in it. Perhaps, if we catch them on a good day, they may furrow their brow when signing it. One person suggested to me that the U.S. should go ahead and let Russia or China veto a resolution with teeth to expose to everyone how much of an enabler they are of the North Korean dictatorship, and the regime in Khartoum, for that matter.

Interesting thought, but, this is not about pointing fingers at anybody other than North Korea. The tangle we find ourselves in with China and Russia is not some Gordian knot to be cut by virtue of North Korea's deliberate, overt, and unquestionably hostile actions against our national security. Too much is at stake.

Mind you, I am not being an alarmist. In the back of my mind, I really doubt the abilities of North Korea's missile technology. Indeed, I doubt their ability to put together a working, high-yield nuclear delivery system which will do more than crash into the sea. However, in today's world, perception is reality. To take anything less than a firm stance at this point would be to demonstrate to the world that we are, indeed, a "paper tiger." This peception, if accepted by the nations of the world, will only lead to more troubles down the road.

2 Comments:

Blogger John S. said...

Ted, or Tim (probably Ted), very funny.

July 17, 2006 8:53 AM  
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